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Whitepapers, briefs, press releases and more

2026 Individual Market Enrollment and Risk Pool Considerations

The ACA individual market is undergoing significant change in 2026. New Wakely analysis of January–July data shows a 15.7% year-over-year decline in enrollment alongside a 6.9% increase in normalized relative risk. The findings suggest that healthier members may be leaving the market at a higher rate, contributing to a more medically complex risk pool and ... Continue reading

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Webinar Alert – Stars Gone Wild: Wakely’s Annual Review of the 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings

November 5, 2027 | 12pm ET Join experts from Wakely for an in-depth review of the 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings and their revenue implications for 2028. The webinar discussion will examine market changes, shifts in ratings and 4+ Star enrollment, performance by organization and plan type, state-level variation, and potential impacts on benchmark revenue ... Continue reading

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Week in Washington 10/29/26

Pre-Enrollment Verification Regulation CMS released a proposed regulation around pre-enrollment verification. Starting in 2028, consumers applying for advance premium tax credits (APTCs) or cost-sharing reductions (CSRs) through the ACA Marketplace would be required to verify key eligibility criteria such as income or citizenship, each year. If a Marketplace cannot verify the information, the consumer will ... Continue reading

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Newsworthy Findings

Centene Sues the CMS Over 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings

The St. Louis-based insurer is adding onto a growing pile of lawsuits from insurers trying to get their quality scores recalculated.

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Editor's Note
In a lawsuit filed Thursday, Centene argued that federal regulators used illegal measures to determine 2027 stars, causing the insurer’s rating to slip and threatening hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue. A court ruled 20 measures were illegal in spring, yet CMS still used some in calculating scores for all insurers except Clover Health. Other insurers such as Alignment Healthcare and Healthfirst have filed suits as well.

CMS Proposes Heightened Standards for ACA Financial Assistance

Enrollees must jump through more hoops to verify information about their income and residency status.

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Editor's Note
Starting in 2028, the changes would require ACA enrollees seeking enhanced tax credits and cost-sharing reductions to verify income, citizenship, and residential information before financial assistance kicks in. Currently, enrollees who appear eligible can receive assistance while their documentation is verified. The CMS estimates the rule would prompt over 330,000 people annually to leave the exchanges, cementing the enrollment collapse that began after enhanced subsidies expired last year.

CVS Sues To Prevent $2B Medicare Advantage Star Ratings Hit

It’s at least the fifth insurer to turn to the courts in a bid to hike its ratings for next year.

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Editor's Note
CVS Health is suing CMS to challenge the methodology used to calculate its 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings, arguing that improperly adopted measures lowered its scores and could cost the company more than $2 billion in revenue in 2028. The percentage of CVS members enrolled in plans rated four stars or higher fell from 84% in 2026 to 67% in 2027, prompting the lawsuit, which seeks to have ratings for 43 contracts recalculated. CVS joins at least four other insurers pursuing similar legal challenges, potentially increasing pressure on CMS to reform its star ratings methodology.

Centene Progresses On Profit Recovery, Drops 6,000 Employees

Centene now thinks its Medicare business will break even one year ahead of its previous expectations after a buoyant third quarter.

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Editor's Note
Centene is recovering profitability faster than expected, raising its 2026 adjusted earnings outlook to greater than $5.20 per share and anticipating its Medicare business will break even a year earlier than planned. Improved Medicaid reimbursement rates, higher ACA premiums, and lower-than-expected Medicare costs supported results, despite elevated Medicaid spending and an 8% year-over-year decline in membership. Centene also reduced its workforce by nearly 6,000 employees in the third quarter, incurring almost $280 million in severance costs, with the cuts expected to support margin expansion in 2027.

Democratic Senators Probe Insurers’ Role in Canceling ACA Coverage for 760K

Democratic senators are questioning nearly a dozen insurers over their role in terminating ACA coverage for 760,000 people, raising concerns about whether the actions followed established eligibility procedures. Insurers have been asked to provide details on their coordination with CMS and how eligibility decisions were made.

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Editor's Note
If substantiated, the allegations raise questions about insurers’ incentives to cooperate and whether the administration bypassed established regulatory processes in pursuing its anti-fraud agenda.

Bonus Article

Just for Fun

Math Riddle

What three positive numbers give the same result when multiplied and added together?

Prior Week

Q: Why did the Actuary avoid gossip?   

 

A: Too many unproven assumptions.

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