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2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings: Stability at the Surface, Volatility Underneath

Download Wakely’s analysis of the 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D Star Ratings Wakely’s analysis of the 2027 Star Ratings data tells a different story from what published commentary by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid (CMS) suggests. While CMS reports stable enrollment in bonus-eligible plans, our analysis using consistent, normalized enrollment figures shows meaningful ... Continue reading

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2028 ACA Market Readiness Starts in Q4 2026

A Practical Action Plan for ACA Issuers Preparing for an Uncertain Market The individual Affordable Care Act (ACA) market is entering one of its most challenging periods since the early years of the legislation. Declining enrollment, higher morbidity, issuer exits, elevated rate increases, and continued regulatory uncertainty are making participation and profitability more difficult to ... Continue reading

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Build More Robust Medicaid Capitation Rate Development Processes in a Changing Environment

Process considerations for states seeking greater transparency, timeliness, and actuarial confidence in Medicaid managed care rate setting Medicaid managed care rate setting is becoming increasingly complex. Changes in enrollment, member acuity, utilization, provider markets, benefit programs, and public policy can make historical experience less predictive of future costs, and increase the importance of a transparent, ... Continue reading

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Week in Washington 10/15/26

Medicare Advantage Stars Release CMS released the 2027 Medicare Advantage and Part D star ratings. The average MA-PD rating declined from 4.01 to 3.99 stars. Please see this Wakely analysis on changes to 2027 stars. Alignment Healthcare filed a lawsuit challenging its 2027 star rating and requesting the same methodology that CMS applied to Clover ... Continue reading

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Newsworthy Findings

Unitedhealth Eyes Medicare Advantage Opportunities, Bolstered by Q3 Profit Growth

The insurer is gearing up for growth in more lucrative MA markets next year.

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Editor's Note
UnitedHealth raised its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance for the third time this year after third-quarter profits increased 75% to $4.1 billion, despite revenue declining slightly, driven by plan cuts and a lower medical loss ratio. The company is improving margins by shedding less-profitable Medicare Advantage members and expanding special needs plans, though lower star ratings could reduce future revenue. UnitedHealth also faces ongoing cost pressures from Medicaid utilization, specialty drugs, and No Surprises Act arbitration awards, which executives say are driving billions in excess costs.

Alignment Sues CMS Over 2027 Medicare Advantage Star Ratings Crash

The lawsuit isn’t a surprise, after Alignment told investors it would take all available actions to improve its quality scores.

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Editor's Note
Alignment Healthcare is suing CMS over its 2027 Medicare Advantage star ratings, arguing that the agency’s methodology is illegal because it used measures that were not implemented through formal rulemaking. The insurer’s share of members enrolled in plans rated at least four stars fell from 98% to 25%, potentially costing more than $200 million in 2028 payments. The lawsuit seeks to overturn the ratings and require recalculation, potentially paving the way for similar challenges from other insurers.

Hospitals Sue Over Revamped 340B Rebate Pilot

It’s the second time the HHS has tried to kickstart a 340B rebate program — and the second time hospitals have sued to block it, alleging rebates will threaten their financial viability.

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Editor's Note
Hospital groups, including the American Hospital Association and Maine Hospital Association, are suing to block HRSA’s revised 340B drug rebate pilot, arguing that the agency underestimated administrative costs and failed to adequately consider hospitals’ concerns. The 340B program provides safety-net providers with discounted outpatient drugs, but drugmakers argue it’s enabled excessive profits, with purchases reaching $100 billion in 2025. Hospitals warn the rebate model could cost more than $1 billion annually, strain already limited finances, and threaten access to care for vulnerable populations.

Medicare Penalizes More Hospitals for Readmissions

About 20.8 million Medicare beneficiaries will receive a $90 direct deposit or check this month, the latest in a growing list of cash payments promised by the White House in advance of the midterms.

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Editor's Note
CMS will reduce Medicare payments to 80% of hospitals (2,334 facilities) in fiscal year 2027 under the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program, up from 78% in 2026. The penalties, now incorporating Medicare Advantage beneficiaries for the first time, aim to reduce avoidable readmissions but remain controversial due to concerns about their impact on safety-net hospitals and whether reduced readmissions reflect genuine improvements in care.

CMS Takes Aim at Duplicative ACA, Medicaid Enrollments

CMS identified 189,000 people with duplicative ACA and Medicaid, Medicare, or CHIP coverage and removed ACA subsidies for those enrollees, an effort the agency estimates could save $1.5 billion over the next year.

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Editor's Note
Increased data matching around duplicate coverage could have meaningful implications for ACA enrollment and subsidies as CMS continues its efforts to reduce improper payments.

Bonus Article

Just for Fun

Math Riddle

Why did the sequence refuse to skip ahead? 

Prior Week

Q: Why did the probability professor never make dinner plans?   

 

A: There was always a chance something else would come up. 

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