This whitepaper provides a preliminary view into how the individual market risk pool is shifting in 2025 following the Medicaid redetermination period in 2023-2024, sizable historical market growth, and other recent enrollment dynamics. Early results point to a notable increase in market risk for 2025, with demographic normalized relative risk rising over 8% when comparing either 2023 or 2024 to 2025 for the January-April period. These increases appear to be concentrated primarily in federally facilitated exchange (FFE) states that have not expanded Medicaid, which shows an increase of 11.6% comparing January-April 2023 to 2025. While several factors likely contribute to the observed trend, the limited scope of four months of emerging data makes it difficult to isolate true morbidity changes from other drivers. We anticipate results could materialize differently through the remainder of 2025 and will continue to monitor. Please see Implications and Key Limitations sections below for a discussion on potential drivers of these increases and the associated caveats.
