Wakely Wire

New Insights

Whitepapers, briefs, press releases and more

Update: 2025 Individual Market Risk Pool Considerations

This white paper reviews the emerging 2025 individual market risk pool and how relative risk compares with 2024 and historical years. Results indicate an overall increase in normalized relative risk in 2025 from 2024. This pattern is observed both in the initial analysis using data from January to April and in the latest update incorporating ... Continue reading

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ACA Affordability Scorecard

This white paper analyzes how ACA affordability will change in 2026 if enhanced subsidies expire. Using county-level premium data, it shows that consumers—especially younger and lower-income—will face significant premium increases, though buying down to cheaper Silver or Bronze plans can partially offset costs. Impacts vary widely by state, income, and age, creating risks for market ... Continue reading

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Week in Washington 11/13/25

Shutdown Ends On Wednesday, the House passed a bill to the end the longest ever government shutdown. The agreement provides funding for some agencies through the end of the fiscal year and others (such as HHS) through January 30th, 2026. The agreement extends Medicare telehealth flexibilities until January 30th, 2026. It also waved scheduled PAYGO ... Continue reading

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Events & More

Value Based Care Advisory Services: HMA and Wakely Put Analysis into Action

November 20, 2025
1:00 PM ET

Join experts from HMA and Wakely, an HMA Company, for an inside look at how our teams help organizations navigate and thrive in the value-based landscape. This session will highlight case studies and recent work that demonstrate a comprehensive advisory solution for any value-based entity. Attendees will gain a deeper understanding of how integrated insights across strategy, analytics, and implementation can drive measurable results in value-based care.

Learn more and register

Newsworthy Findings

CMMI to Launch Model to Lower Medicaid Drug Spending

Under the model, set to start next year, the CMS will negotiate lower prices for Medicaid programs linked to those paid in select other countries with participating pharmaceutical manufacturers.

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Editor's Note
The agency is now seeking applications from manufacturers interested in participating in the model, as well as letters of intent from states that may want to opt into the pricing and terms eventually negotiated by the CMS. States will be able to enroll on a rolling basis through Aug. 31.

Novo, Lilly Cut Deal with Trump to Lower Prices of Obesity Drugs

The agreement will make Wegovy and Zepbound available to some Medicare enrollees for $245 per month, and starter doses of pill versions, once approved, for $149 monthly.

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Editor's Note
The waning days of the Biden administration sought to include GLP-1s in Medicare and Medicaid coverage. The Trump administration initially decided not to proceed with these efforts. However, a recent deal aimed at broadening access to these drugs and equalizing U.S. prices with those paid in other nation, circles back to the Biden administration’s efforts. The new monthly price tag on these drugs for Medicare enrollees is $245, down from what used to be in the thousands.

Democrats Introduce Bill to Repeal Medicare Prior Authorization Pilot

The lawmakers argue the CMS innovation center model, which will implement AI-backed prior authorization for some services in six states, will add red tape and limit access to care.

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Editor's Note
Under CMS’s WISeR model, AI-backed prior authorization is intended to identify unnecessary care and reduce costs for both patients and the federal government. However, Democratic lawmakers warn the approach could instead restrict access, worsen health outcomes for Medicare seniors, and strain providers. Critics have also raised concerns about potential financial incentives to deny care, which could undermine trust in the program.

FDA to Remove Safety Warnings on Hormonal Menopause Therapy

The decision, issued without the input of an official advisory committee, revises long-held labeling on the drugs cautioning the risk of cancer and heart disease.

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Editor's Note
The FDA’s decision follows a comprehensive review of scientific literature, feedback from an expert panel convened in July, and a public comment period. The original safety warnings stemmed from a landmark study on estrogen plus progestin therapy in postmenopausal women, which found increased risks of breast cancer and heart disease. More recent evidence, however, paints a more nuanced picture — with some studies suggesting potential cardiovascular benefits and reduced fracture risk, prompting the agency to revisit decades-old cautionary labeling.

Historic Government Shutdown Ends, Leaving ACA Subsidies in Limbo

The longest government shutdown in history came to an end Wednesday evening, after President Donald Trump signed a stopgap spending bill.

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Editor's Note
Washington is moving to restart government operations, but Democrats leave without their key win of securing a long-term extension of enhanced ACA tax credits set to lapse at the end of 2025. Senate Republicans have only agreed to hold a vote before year’s end, offering no assurance the subsidies will continue and resulting in mounting uncertainty heading into the 2026 coverage year.

Bonus Article

Just for Fun

Math Joke

Why was the equal sign so humble?

Prior Week

I’ll do algebra, I’ll do trigonometry, and I’ll even do statistics…

But graphing is where I draw the line.

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